A figure marked "verified" was re-read at its source or matched against our data layer on that date. A figure marked "reported" is press-reported and not yet cross-checked.

The fiscal story of the year

National Pay Scale 2026 — who pays?

নতুন বেতন কাঠামো ২০২৬ — টাকা আসবে কোথা থেকে?

What happened

The cabinet approved the 9th National Pay Scale. Basic pay is effective from 1 July 2026, revised allowances follow from FY2027-28. Grade 20 basic rises from Tk 8,250 to Tk 20,000; grades 10–20 get 50% now and two further 25% steps in January and July 2027.

Why it is the story

The full-run cost is Tk 1,05,580 crore a year, against a revenue system that missed last year's target by Tk 88,000 crore and government bank borrowing that already overshot the FY26 target.

The numbers

Tk 1,05,580 crore / yrFull-run cost of the new scaleSource: The Daily Star, 31 Aug 2026
Tk 44,000 croreFY27 allocationSource: The Daily Star, 31 Aug 2026
14.64 lakhGovernment employees coveredSource: Prothom Alo, Aug 2026
Tk 8,250 → Tk 20,000Grade 20 basic paySource: bdnews24, Aug 2026
Tk 88,000 croreLast year's revenue shortfall vs targetSource: New Age, Aug 2026
+Tk 47,500 croreBank borrowing over the FY26 targetSource: The Daily Star, 31 Aug 2026

The BD Econ angle

Not "hurrah for civil servants". Who pays? Three financing paths — tax, bank borrowing, ADP cuts — and what each does to inflation, private credit and the deficit.

Daily Star — cabinet approves CPD — Fahmida Khatun on funding Daily Star editorial — fiscal strain

The production story

The gas and LNG crisis

গ্যাস ও এলএনজি সংকট

What happened

A fire during a ship-to-ship transfer at the Excelerate FSRU off Moheshkhali on 21–22 July cut about 450 mmcfd of gas. Supply fell to roughly 2,100 mmcfd against about 3,800 in demand; load shedding topped 3 GW between 26 July and 15 August. Partial restart came on 5 August, then the Summit terminal cut back.

Why it is the story

September LNG cargoes cost more than double pre-war rates. Six urea plants closed or curtailed and CNG stations shut — one terminal fire reached fertiliser, factories and the current account.

The numbers

−450 mmcfdGas supply lost after the FSRU fireSource: The Business Standard, Jul 2026
~2,100 vs ~3,800 mmcfdSupply vs demand during the outageSource: The Daily Star, Aug 2026
>3 GWPeak load shedding, 26 Jul – 15 AugSource: The Daily Star, Aug 2026
>2× pre-warSeptember LNG cargo pricesSource: The Daily Star, 24 Aug 2026

The BD Econ angle

Energy import bill × exchange rate × industrial output: the transmission from one FSRU fire to RMG delivery dates, Aman-season fertiliser and the balance of payments. Three outages make the case for a fixed terminal.

TBS — 450 mmcfd cut TBS — two-week restart IEEFA — more LNG is not the answer

The calendar hook

LDC graduation goes to the UN General Assembly

এলডিসি উত্তরণ — সিদ্ধান্ত এখন জাতিসংঘ সাধারণ পরিষদে

What happened

Bangladesh asked to extend its LDC preparatory period to 24 November 2029. The UN Committee for Development Policy recommended it in June; ECOSOC forwarded it unanimously to the General Assembly on 21 July. The Assembly opens on 8 September and must decide before 24 November 2026.

Why it is the story

Graduation removes trade preferences worth an estimated $1–7 billion a year in exports and ends the pharma TRIPS waiver. RMG, over 80% of exports, enters most preference markets duty-free today.

The numbers

24 Nov 2029Extension requested (from 24 Nov 2026)Source: The Business Standard, Jun 2026
21 Jul → 8 SepECOSOC referral → UNGA opensSource: The Daily Star, Jul 2026
$1–7bn / yrEstimated export-earnings loss after graduation (analyst estimate) verified 5 Sep 2026Source: Bangladesh Business Forum, 6 Dec 2025
EU 9–12% · Japan 7–13% · Canada 16–18%Post-graduation tariffs (analyst estimate) verified 5 Sep 2026Source: Bangladesh Business Forum, 6 Dec 2025

The BD Econ angle

"Three more years — of what?" The reform scorecard the CDP actually named — financial-sector stabilisation and domestic resource mobilisation — set against our own data on NPLs, tax-to-GDP and reserves.

TBS — CDP backs 2029 Daily Star — ECOSOC refers to UNGA Daily Star — graduation must trigger reform

The informal economy meets the grid

Battery rickshaws — livelihoods and the power balance

ব্যাটারি রিকশা — জীবিকা ও বিদ্যুৎ

What happened

On 30 August the government announced a zone-based policy for Dhaka: eight zones, no main roads, registration with colour codes, fitness and QR, and solar charging required for registration and renewal. Drivers' groups oppose it; earlier bans in 2014, 2024 and 2025 collapsed after protests.

Why it is the story

Roughly 750 MW — about 5% of national generation — charges these vehicles at night, in the middle of a gas crisis. Dhaka has 3,300 authorised charging points and over 48,000 unauthorised ones.

The numbers

~750 MW ≈ 5%Grid load from rickshaw charging, share of generationSource: CPD, via Bonik Barta, 14 Aug 2026
4.5–5 millionNational fleet (BPDB estimate)Source: BPDB, via Dhaka Tribune, 30 Aug 2026
3,300 vs 48,136Authorised vs illegal charging points in DhakaSource: Bonik Barta, 14 Aug 2026
~Tk 4bn / yrRevenue lost to unauthorised chargingSource: Bonik Barta, 14 Aug 2026
8 zonesDNCC 4 + DSCC 4, no main roadsSource: Dhaka Tribune, 30 Aug 2026

The BD Econ angle

Never a traffic story. Livelihood + energy + regulation: around a million Dhaka incomes, unmetered night load, lead-acid battery imports, and what a solar-charging mandate really costs a driver.

Dhaka Tribune — the policy Dhaka Tribune — solar rule Bonik Barta — grid load

Record inflows, exposed jobs

Remittance record vs the Gulf-war job risk

রেমিট্যান্সে রেকর্ড, ঝুঁকিতে প্রবাসী চাকরি

What happened

August 2026 brought $2.148 billion in 22 days, up 25.6% on a year earlier, after a record $35.6 billion in FY26. At the same time the World Bank flags around 600,000 Bangladeshi jobs at risk from Middle East conflict spillover.

Why it is the story

Conflict pulls money home now and threatens the jobs that send it. The inflow record and the job risk are the same story seen from two ends.

The numbers

$2.148bn in 22 daysAugust 2026 remittance, +25.6% y/ySource: BSS, Aug 2026
$35.6bnFY26 remittance, +17.35%Source: BSS, Aug 2026
~600,000 jobsBangladeshi jobs at risk from Middle East spillover in 2026 (World Bank) verified 5 Sep 2026Source: TOB News, 29 Aug 2026, citing the World Bank CERP paper of 15 Jun 2026

The BD Econ angle

The paradox: what a Gulf shock does to remittance in month one versus month twelve, and which districts carry the exposure.

BSS — +25.6% in August Jago News — $2.34bn in 24 days

The taps open on 7 September

Sammilito Islami Bank and the Resolution Act

সম্মিলিত ইসলামী ব্যাংক ও ব্যাংক রেজোলিউশন আইন

What happened

Five merged Shariah banks became Sammilito Islami Bank; depositors can withdraw from 7 September. The Bank Resolution Act 2026, section 18(ka), lets former owners reclaim a bank with 7.5% upfront — the clause the World Bank wants scrapped as a condition of $500 million in budget support.

Why it is the story

Non-performing loans last printed at 32.78% of all loans (end-June 2026) — still the highest ratio in the world. What happens at the counters on 7 September is the first public test of the whole resolution framework.

The numbers

7 Sep 2026Withdrawals open at Sammilito Islami BankSource: The Daily Star, 1 Sep 2026
$500mWorld Bank support tied to scrapping §18(ka)Source: The Daily Star, 2026
32.78%Non-performing loans, last print (end-June 2026, Tk 606,555 crore) verified 5 Sep 2026Source: Bangladesh Bank, via Prothom Alo, 3 Sep 2026

The BD Econ angle

Depositor behaviour in week one, the §18(ka) standoff with the World Bank, and what a reclaim clause does to the price of every future rescue.

Daily Star — depositors from 7 Sept Daily Star — World Bank condition TBS — Resolution bill passed

The August print lands this month

Inflation: the August number

মূল্যস্ফীতি — আগস্টের হিসাব

What happened

July inflation was 8.32%, down from 9.16% in June; food 7.16%, non-food 9.28%. The policy rate stays at 10%. The August print lands with the first month of higher basic pay and the LNG shock in the base.

Why it is the story

It is the first reading that carries both the pay scale and the gas crisis. Whether the disinflation holds decides the central bank's room for the rest of the year.

The numbers